Stagflation Risk Portfolio Strategy: Defensive Positioning with Optionality
2027-08-26
The latest PCE data points to an uncomfortable combination:
When the Treasury Becomes “Too Important to Fail”: How Investors Can Trade the Policy Reaction
2027-08-25
It is the foundation of the global financial system — the benchmark for interest rates, a core reserve asset, major collateral in the repo market, and a key input into the valuation of equities, credit, real estate, and infrastructure.
Google & Alibaba: Why Does the AI Investment Cycle Keep Going?
2027-08-24
Because stopping AI CapEx can be more dangerous for a Big Tech company than continuing it, even when the near-term ROI is uncertain.
AI Infrastructure Capital Flow, Incentives & Wealth Transfer Risk
2027-08-23
The central risk in the current AI infrastructure boom is not necessarily illegal behavior or direct executive embezzlement.
AI Capital Cycle: Real Demand, Real Capital, Real Risk
2026-08-23
AI Infrastructure, Financing, Monetization and the Risk of Overinvestment
AI Bubble Analysis: Why Enron Is Still Relevant
2026-08-22
Will the future economic value created by AI justify the amount of capital invested today?
AI Capital Sustainability Model — Plain English Summary
2026-08-22
Can the economic value created by AI eventually cover the capital invested today and the cost of financing that investment?
AI, Debt, and the Productivity Bet: Can AI Create a Large Enough Economic "Cake"?
2026-08-22
Can AI increase US economic productivity fast enough to offset rising debt costs?
Understanding the AI Bubble Stress Index
2026-08-10
How five weighted components combine into a single 0-100 bubble risk read, and what each one is actually measuring.
What the Long Duration Stress Index Actually Measures
2026-08-05
Yield momentum, term premium, and why 30-year Treasuries tend to move first when AI capex accelerates.
Circular Financing: The 2008 Playbook Applied to AI
2026-07-28
When capital markets, AI CapEx, and AI revenue start reinforcing each other, growth and risk become hard to tell apart.
AI, US Treasury, and Michael Burry: Bubble, Liquidity, and Reality Framework
2026-08-22
Can AI generate enough economic value, fast enough, to justify the amount of capital being committed today?